Guys, I hope you got your pips out of Cable's move. I took profit just below my 1.4800 target - after a nasty reversal - but the trade netted 3% account so more than happy.
The reason I write is an over-extension on AUDUSD which I entered short a pair of hours back and it has dropped significantly since.
I haven't got the connection to go into detail right now but look at the 1H chart and you will see that it's daily pivot has been missed and earlier it soared right through R3. My stop loss is above the last recent high (50 pips or so at the time of entry) and it may well still test this before a concerted effort back South but I think it's worth a look.
I will post charts later.
Sorry for falling behind the curve on this one. R.
Wednesday, 29 April 2009
Tuesday, 28 April 2009
Loving the Cable
I've just gone long the Cable, which given it's tightening range probably strikes you as pretty strange behaviour. Allow me to explain...
You can see from this chart that having returned to its spiritual home of the 1h 800 sma, the pair has ranged and the moving averages are squeezing together nicely. On the face of it the pair could break either way.
However, I note that the 800 sma has twice repelled Cable to the upside and it looks like it wants another go at downward sloping resistance. I think that there may be a reason for this, and the clue was passed to me by a very sharp individual called Rob Booker...
You can see from this that last week it never managed to tag its Weekly Pivot point. Now that's rare.
...Also, on last monday, not only did it fail to tag its Daily Pivot, but it blew right through its S3 support. This is also very rare.
These 2 levels are co-incident at 1.4830 and that's where I am hoping the pair want to re-visit.
A safer trade would be to wait until the pair closes on the 1H time-frame above sloping resistance, but if it achieves this, I want to be leveraging the trade up.
You can see from this chart that having returned to its spiritual home of the 1h 800 sma, the pair has ranged and the moving averages are squeezing together nicely. On the face of it the pair could break either way.However, I note that the 800 sma has twice repelled Cable to the upside and it looks like it wants another go at downward sloping resistance. I think that there may be a reason for this, and the clue was passed to me by a very sharp individual called Rob Booker...
You can see from this that last week it never managed to tag its Weekly Pivot point. Now that's rare.
...Also, on last monday, not only did it fail to tag its Daily Pivot, but it blew right through its S3 support. This is also very rare.These 2 levels are co-incident at 1.4830 and that's where I am hoping the pair want to re-visit.
A safer trade would be to wait until the pair closes on the 1H time-frame above sloping resistance, but if it achieves this, I want to be leveraging the trade up.
Tuesday, 21 April 2009
Rebound
Okay so Yippon broke to the upside.
As I posted earlier, I took the trade as I had planned on a convicted 5min close and targetted the 5minute 800 sma.
Here's how the trade looked...
This quick trade netted another 2% for the account.
As you can see the pair is currently ranging around the 5min 800, between the 2 red horizontal lines. For those of you with the time to watch closely, a break to the upside might make the 1H 200 sma, but for me a break down is a litttle more likely in the first instance, so the risk to reward doesn't quite stack up and I don't want to sully such an outstandingly profitable week.
As I posted earlier, I took the trade as I had planned on a convicted 5min close and targetted the 5minute 800 sma.
Here's how the trade looked...
This quick trade netted another 2% for the account.As you can see the pair is currently ranging around the 5min 800, between the 2 red horizontal lines. For those of you with the time to watch closely, a break to the upside might make the 1H 200 sma, but for me a break down is a litttle more likely in the first instance, so the risk to reward doesn't quite stack up and I don't want to sully such an outstandingly profitable week.
Pivotal
'Yippon' is currently trading at a pivotal level...
Overnight and again this morning it tested its rising support line and the horizontal significance of its current range can also be seen on this 4H chart.
The range is 141.51 to 143.42.
A 5 minute break above this level would trigger a short term trade back up to the 5minute 800 sma although based on Fibonacci and previous horizontal resistance, 145 dead would be a safer target.
A break below 141.50 on a 1H basis would have greater medium term significance, with 140 dead as a realistic immediate target and 135.60 achievable.
Overnight and again this morning it tested its rising support line and the horizontal significance of its current range can also be seen on this 4H chart.The range is 141.51 to 143.42.
A 5 minute break above this level would trigger a short term trade back up to the 5minute 800 sma although based on Fibonacci and previous horizontal resistance, 145 dead would be a safer target.
A break below 141.50 on a 1H basis would have greater medium term significance, with 140 dead as a realistic immediate target and 135.60 achievable.
Monday, 20 April 2009
Bingo !
Those who took the Yippon short with me ought, by now, to be settling back with a G+T, for it was a cracking trade that netted 375 pips and 7.5% account.
This is how it looked...
The grey rectangle represents the portion of the move that I traded.
You can see that the pair initially broke out overnight (UK) but I woke to see it re-testing previous support as resistance.
I then doubled my trade size on the first significant pull-back on the 1 minute chart...
Then I sat back and held my breath...
Profits were taken at the 161 Fib level, which in the light of where the pair are now seems very conservative - particularly since I had predicted a move back to the 1H 800 sma - which has since been hit...
So, why did I target the 161 Fib ? Well, my last slug of backtesting indicates a probability superior to 95% that a breakout on this pair will make the 161.
Which means that I took the quick, 'stress free' pips.
Lessons ? Just One. I did attempt a re-entry later on but closed it out for a small profit, even though it was starting to move my way. Why ? Well for me, once I have taken profit it feels like the psychological bond with the trade has been broken. The new entry feels like I am chasing it; it feels greedy, I fret about giving the pips back and it just doesn't work for me.
Solution... Either leave a small position running or be happy with the quick pips.
Still, I'm not going to thrash myself too much over what was a very successful trade. I hope it worked out for you too.
This is how it looked...
The grey rectangle represents the portion of the move that I traded.You can see that the pair initially broke out overnight (UK) but I woke to see it re-testing previous support as resistance.
I then doubled my trade size on the first significant pull-back on the 1 minute chart...
Then I sat back and held my breath...Profits were taken at the 161 Fib level, which in the light of where the pair are now seems very conservative - particularly since I had predicted a move back to the 1H 800 sma - which has since been hit...
So, why did I target the 161 Fib ? Well, my last slug of backtesting indicates a probability superior to 95% that a breakout on this pair will make the 161.
Which means that I took the quick, 'stress free' pips.
Lessons ? Just One. I did attempt a re-entry later on but closed it out for a small profit, even though it was starting to move my way. Why ? Well for me, once I have taken profit it feels like the psychological bond with the trade has been broken. The new entry feels like I am chasing it; it feels greedy, I fret about giving the pips back and it just doesn't work for me.
Solution... Either leave a small position running or be happy with the quick pips.
Still, I'm not going to thrash myself too much over what was a very successful trade. I hope it worked out for you too.
Sunday, 19 April 2009
Back In The Saddle
Those of you who follow the Sterling pairs will know that they have been somewhat tricky over the last couple of weeks. As a result my account has basically stood still...
Further, I note that it tried to break out to the upside early on Thursday morning but was quickly turned back.
On this Daily chart we see that having risen back above the 62 ema, the pair has, thus far, been resisted by the 144 ema.
... I also note that it is 0verbought, and on both MACD and Stochastic Oscillator - it is becoming divergent.
So I am thinking that it might well be due for a trip back down to its rising support line - which you can see is co-incident with the Daily 62 ema.
Let's come down in range to the 4 Hourly chart...
...However, back-testing progress has been significant and as a direct result of this graft, I am focussing on this trade idea for the coming week.
GBPJPY
As can be seen from this simple chart 'Yippon' has been range-bound for 9 trading days...
Further, I note that it tried to break out to the upside early on Thursday morning but was quickly turned back.
On this Daily chart we see that having risen back above the 62 ema, the pair has, thus far, been resisted by the 144 ema.
... I also note that it is 0verbought, and on both MACD and Stochastic Oscillator - it is becoming divergent.So I am thinking that it might well be due for a trip back down to its rising support line - which you can see is co-incident with the Daily 62 ema.
Let's come down in range to the 4 Hourly chart...
Here, I like the fact that it closed the week below the 4H 62 ema. I also like the fact that the 200 sma (It's next dynamic support) is co-incident with technical rising support.
... And on the 1Hour chart...
... I like the way 62, 144 and 200 moving averages are intertwined, I like the descending price action over the last trading day and the fact that the 1H 800 sma is also co-incident with rising support.
Now, don't get me wrong, this pair is ranging because no-body wants to commit in either direction and I certainly don't have a crystal ball. But for me, at least, evidence of a short term thrust to the downside is mounting.
So, assuming my analtsis is correct, how am I going to trade it ?
Well, even if my hunch is right I suspect it is due one more test of that steep descending resistance line before it tanks. If so I will open a small pilot sell on a convicted 15 min reversal against at this resistance.
It may of course just tank, in which case my intention is to sell it on a 1H close below 145.70, and keep shorting it all the way down to the 1H 800 sma, which by this stage should be co-incident with the 161 Fib level.
But what if I am wrong ?
For me the first indication would be a convicted break of descending resistance. At which point I will enter a break away from the 5minute 800 sma long and target a re-test of the high at 151.50.
Whatever happens, the eventual break of this range is going to be explosive. And when it does I am determined to be on the right side of the market... and to squeeze as many pips out of it as I can !
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