Last Post

Guys,

It's been about 3 months since I started blogging here and the discipline has given my trading the edge that it needed. After 3 months I'm 30% up, the equity curve is steady and risk per trade has been minimal... and I'm really enjoying it.

Fundamental in this process has been Tom, my good friend and trading partner, who has agreed to come onboard and blog in his own right.

So, from now on we can be found at www.the-consistent-traders.blogspot.com

The aim, here, will be to inrease the tempo and - hopefully (... Tom) - enrich the content.

Hope to see you all there... Rob W.

Get Your Skates On !

Guys, I hope you got your pips out of Cable's move. I took profit just below my 1.4800 target - after a nasty reversal - but the trade netted 3% account so more than happy.

The reason I write is an over-extension on AUDUSD which I entered short a pair of hours back and it has dropped significantly since.

I haven't got the connection to go into detail right now but look at the 1H chart and you will see that it's daily pivot has been missed and earlier it soared right through R3. My stop loss is above the last recent high (50 pips or so at the time of entry) and it may well still test this before a concerted effort back South but I think it's worth a look.

I will post charts later.

Sorry for falling behind the curve on this one. R.

Loving the Cable

I've just gone long the Cable, which given it's tightening range probably strikes you as pretty strange behaviour. Allow me to explain...

You can see from this chart that having returned to its spiritual home of the 1h 800 sma, the pair has ranged and the moving averages are squeezing together nicely. On the face of it the pair could break either way.

However, I note that the 800 sma has twice repelled Cable to the upside and it looks like it wants another go at downward sloping resistance. I think that there may be a reason for this, and the clue was passed to me by a very sharp individual called Rob Booker...

You can see from this that last week it never managed to tag its Weekly Pivot point. Now that's rare.

...Also, on last monday, not only did it fail to tag its Daily Pivot, but it blew right through its S3 support. This is also very rare.

These 2 levels are co-incident at 1.4830 and that's where I am hoping the pair want to re-visit.

A safer trade would be to wait until the pair closes on the 1H time-frame above sloping resistance, but if it achieves this, I want to be leveraging the trade up.

Rebound

Okay so Yippon broke to the upside.

As I posted earlier, I took the trade as I had planned on a convicted 5min close and targetted the 5minute 800 sma.

Here's how the trade looked...

This quick trade netted another 2% for the account.

As you can see the pair is currently ranging around the 5min 800, between the 2 red horizontal lines. For those of you with the time to watch closely, a break to the upside might make the 1H 200 sma, but for me a break down is a litttle more likely in the first instance, so the risk to reward doesn't quite stack up and I don't want to sully such an outstandingly profitable week.

Pivotal

'Yippon' is currently trading at a pivotal level...

Overnight and again this morning it tested its rising support line and the horizontal significance of its current range can also be seen on this 4H chart.

The range is 141.51 to 143.42.

A 5 minute break above this level would trigger a short term trade back up to the 5minute 800 sma although based on Fibonacci and previous horizontal resistance, 145 dead would be a safer target.

A break below 141.50 on a 1H basis would have greater medium term significance, with 140 dead as a realistic immediate target and 135.60 achievable.

Bingo !

Those who took the Yippon short with me ought, by now, to be settling back with a G+T, for it was a cracking trade that netted 375 pips and 7.5% account.

This is how it looked...

The grey rectangle represents the portion of the move that I traded.

You can see that the pair initially broke out overnight (UK) but I woke to see it re-testing previous support as resistance.

I then doubled my trade size on the first significant pull-back on the 1 minute chart...

Then I sat back and held my breath...

Profits were taken at the 161 Fib level, which in the light of where the pair are now seems very conservative - particularly since I had predicted a move back to the 1H 800 sma - which has since been hit...

So, why did I target the 161 Fib ? Well, my last slug of backtesting indicates a probability superior to 95% that a breakout on this pair will make the 161.

Which means that I took the quick, 'stress free' pips.

Lessons ? Just One. I did attempt a re-entry later on but closed it out for a small profit, even though it was starting to move my way. Why ? Well for me, once I have taken profit it feels like the psychological bond with the trade has been broken. The new entry feels like I am chasing it; it feels greedy, I fret about giving the pips back and it just doesn't work for me.

Solution... Either leave a small position running or be happy with the quick pips.

Still, I'm not going to thrash myself too much over what was a very successful trade. I hope it worked out for you too.

Back In The Saddle

Those of you who follow the Sterling pairs will know that they have been somewhat tricky over the last couple of weeks. As a result my account has basically stood still...

...However, back-testing progress has been significant and as a direct result of this graft, I am focussing on this trade idea for the coming week.

GBPJPY

As can be seen from this simple chart 'Yippon' has been range-bound for 9 trading days...

Further, I note that it tried to break out to the upside early on Thursday morning but was quickly turned back.

On this Daily chart we see that having risen back above the 62 ema, the pair has, thus far, been resisted by the 144 ema.

... I also note that it is 0verbought, and on both MACD and Stochastic Oscillator - it is becoming divergent.


So I am thinking that it might well be due for a trip back down to its rising support line - which you can see is co-incident with the Daily 62 ema.


Let's come down in range to the 4 Hourly chart...

Here, I like the fact that it closed the week below the 4H 62 ema. I also like the fact that the 200 sma (It's next dynamic support) is co-incident with technical rising support.

... And on the 1Hour chart...

... I like the way 62, 144 and 200 moving averages are intertwined, I like the descending price action over the last trading day and the fact that the 1H 800 sma is also co-incident with rising support.

Now, don't get me wrong, this pair is ranging because no-body wants to commit in either direction and I certainly don't have a crystal ball. But for me, at least, evidence of a short term thrust to the downside is mounting.

So, assuming my analtsis is correct, how am I going to trade it ?

Well, even if my hunch is right I suspect it is due one more test of that steep descending resistance line before it tanks. If so I will open a small pilot sell on a convicted 15 min reversal against at this resistance.

It may of course just tank, in which case my intention is to sell it on a 1H close below 145.70, and keep shorting it all the way down to the 1H 800 sma, which by this stage should be co-incident with the 161 Fib level.

But what if I am wrong ?

For me the first indication would be a convicted break of descending resistance. At which point I will enter a break away from the 5minute 800 sma long and target a re-test of the high at 151.50.

Whatever happens, the eventual break of this range is going to be explosive. And when it does I am determined to be on the right side of the market... and to squeeze as many pips out of it as I can !

Tightening

As we look forward to the G20, this coming Thursday, everything seems to be tightening up...

Cable was turned back last week by major sloping resistance.

Having almost got back to the 4H 800 sma, GBPJPY is sitting back in its tight range around 140...And GBPCHF speaks for itself !

But are any of them tradeable ?...

My answer is, not just yet; but here is what I am looking at...

Cable

After the slapping the Dollar took in the wake of the Fed's recent decision to 'print money', it has started clawing back its losses against pretty much everything.

Right now Cable is hovering around the 1H 800sma. Whilst it is long overdue a return to it's 4H 800,which is just off the top of the chart, the Head and Shoulders pattern it formed last week makes - in my opinion - further downward movement more likely in the short term.

And if it can break away from the 1H 800 to the downside it will likely close below 2 sloping support lines.

At which point next major support is a long way South.

This isn't to say it won't head back North - hey, what do I know ! - It's just that I don't see a viable trade there for me.

Not so GBPCHF...

I think the boundaries of this tightening wedge are tradeable in either direction, depending on what the pair does when it reaches them.

In particular,I'd love to see it regain the 1H 800 sma (blue line), where a subsequent breakout would either constitute a break or bounce of sloping resistance that has turned it back since the old king died (...!)

Bottom line, nothing on just yet but it could be a big week.

The Story So Far...

Last week did little to excite. I lost on a couple of early trades but pulled the week out of the bag with a nice short term divergence trade on GBPJPY. With 1% account in the bag by Wednesday I didn't see anything sufficiently interesting to tempt me back into another trade for the rest of the week.

This in itself is progress over where I was with my trading in the bad old days and whilst the week's gains have been modest, they are gains none the less.

At the conclusion of my 9th live trading week, 8 have been profitable and the account is 15% up, which is a better start than I might have dreamed was possible just 2 months back.

What am I learning ?

1. Modest, consistent gains are better for my mind-set (confidence) and my bottom line... over time.

2. Time spent analysing is infinitely more productive than market watching, since...

...Conviction is everything. If I really believe in a trade, I am prepared to load it up and stay with it... and it generally comes in.

This all rhymes with trading less, not more. If I only traded those set-ups I had high confidence in my profitability would jump again.

Crazy ?

Who would think of shorting EURUSD in the light of the last 2 days ? You'd have to be crazy, right ?

Well, maybe not.

This pair is 2 days and (a massive) 430 pips from the 5m 800 sma, which is a long time (statistically) and nearly 5 times the average distance it moves before returning; that's nearly 3 standard deviations !

...Also, the pair has come up against strong historical resistance at 1.3680 and the Daily 800 sma.

...The 1H MACD is divergent...


...The 5 minute chart is forming a 'Head and Shoulders'...

And tomorrow is Friday... the day of reversals.

I wouldn't mind betting it will re-test that resistance at the Asian open. But, whatever, I'm going to be ready to short it on a strong 5min close below that neck-line.

With respect to profit target, I don't think the 5min 800 sma is realistic, but the measured potential of a reversal against the neckline coincides with recent support at 1.3518

... which is still 130 pips from where it is now and presenting of a very juicy risk to reward ratio.

I might just have to stay up for this one !

Not Bad...

At the back end of last week, I wrote that I felt Sterling was due for a bounce - but that GBPJPY might complete its cycle back to the 800 sma beforehand. I also said that USDCHF's lack of 'follow-through' might be the prelude to a fall.

So, how did I do ?

Well, by Tuesday evening I was 150 pips and 1% account down having entered, then wimped out of, both the GBPJPY and USDCHF trade plans. Had I stayed with the latter I might have made an awful lot of pips. Bugger.

However, having watched a head and shoulders forming on GBPCHF throughout Tuesday, I resolved to enter short if it broke the neckline and 1H 62 ema, targetting the 200 sma, as my back-testing has taught me that this is a very high probability set-up; particularly on this pair.

Here is the set-up...

...And here is how the trade went.

I actually entered 2 positions, a 'pilot' position as it started to break on the 5min chart and then a second, 2 times standard lot size on the 5min close below the neckline.

This was such a sweet set-up that I felt very confident throughout and exited 4 hours later with a profit of 200+ pips and 4% account.

Incidentally, if you look back at the first chart you will see that the pair went on to touch its theoretical profit target of 330 pips, based on the measured distance of neckline to the peak.

My second prediction that Sterling would rise, was assisted to fruition by the Fed, yesterday afternoon. I don't know about the rest of you but I found it very hard to sit on my hands as the Dollar tanked against everything - especially CHF, given my earlier prediction.

Personally, I responded by shutting my laptop down and walking the dog. Despite my earlier success I was gutted not to have capitalised on my instincts and didn't trust myself to trade.

However, the sun came up this morning and seeing a consolidation box forming around the 1H 800 sma I resloved to buy a 1H break-out of this zone.

Here is how the set-up looked...


And here is how the trade went...

This was another belter,with 160 pips banked, but since I had already made my profit target for the week I was trading the 'beer money' rules and so came away with just under 1% account from the trade.

I can't justify my reason for exiting when I did beyond the fact that I saw momentum starting to wane on 5 and 15 min charts, and that I felt the pair had probably risen enough for one day (!).

Now I am looking to re-enter long, particularly if we get a decent bounce off the (pink) descending support line. However, whether I will have the bottle to carry this through - especially on a Friday - remains to be seen.

Here's a Thought...

Last Thursday the BoS dropped their base rate to 0.25% and within an hour Sterling and the Dollar spiked massively against it.

Here's the USDCHF 1H chart; which roared up 315 pips.

But what has surprised me since is the lack of follow through, which given the strength and pace of the initial reaction strikes me as strange.

So I pulled up a Daily chart on which I was planning a short trade some weeks back. Here it is unadulterated...

As you can see, its rise has been halted by that old rising support now resistance...

... and I just wonder if this pair is finally running out of steam.

So, turning our attention back to the 1H chart...

...I've drawn a horizontal support line beneath the latest consolidation zone at 1.1833. I note that
this level has been a significant support before.

From here it's either going to gather its skirts and burst through that sloping resistance line. Or, it's going to fall and close back through support.

And if it does, I'm going to short it.

Sterling Bullish ?

At the conclusion of my last post I offered the opinion that downside potential on all of the Sterling crosses looked to be dwindling and the back of the week saw the 3 that I follow reverse.

...which is encouraging.

As planned I did have a couple of cracks at shorting GBPJPY back to the 800 below 155.50 - which it made - but it was a choppy old descent and I was not sufficiently convinced / too nervous to stay with either trade. Net result; 120 pips lost.

If I don't really believe in a trade, I can't seem to make it work and am better off staying clear. This is a Lesson I could do with hoisting in.

Once the reversals happened I traded much more positively, scooping another 200 pips on Cable and GBPJPY before the trading week closed.

I ended the week with the Account 3% up, which - unsrprisingly - I'm pretty pleased with.

Looking forward, the technicals for Sterling remain bullish. Here are my tactics...

GBPUSD

Having already taken 100 pips out of Cable's return to the 1H 800, I am a buyer on a 'strong' 1H close above 1.4067 and will add a position on a close above descending resistance. Profit Target will be he 1H 800 sma.

GBPCHF

After last week's massive reversal spike following the BoS Interest rate cut, I am very bullish this pair...

Having said this, I'm happy to go with a strong 1H breakout from it's current consolidation around the 1H 800 sma in either direction.

GBPJPY

Having taken 100 pips out of this pair's recent reversal I'm going to stay on the side-lines until next week's price development generates a more emphatic trigger, either way.

In fact, I'm hoping that nothing triggers too early in the week (and forces my hand) as my instinct tells me that the first couple of trading days could be choppy.

Of the two trades I am currently looking at, Cable is my favourite as it is completing a cycle.

Sterling Triggers ... Again

After last Monday's dissappointment it was perhaps for the best that I spent the rest of the week out of the country and unable to to trade.

However I returned home early this morning to see Cable, GBPCHF and GBPJPY all shaping to re-trigger the short trades I had first anticipated last week.

Between 0900 and 1000 I entered small shorts in each of these pairs and at around lunchtime profits of 550 pips and a shade under 3% of account were taken off the table. Hurrah !

This emphasises, again, the virtues of patience (albeit forced in my case) and tennacity if a sound strategy doesn't at first succeed.

So, where from here ?

Well each of these pairs still has downside potential before support targets are met.

GBPUSD


Whilst the current continuation pattern may dissipate overnight, I wouldn't enter short until support at 1.3737 can be broken with conviction. I would be targetting the all time low at 1.35 initially.

GBPJPY

This pair looks to be forming a downward sloping channel but for me the key support level is 135.50. A convicted break of this level early - and on volume - might result in a return to the 1H 800 sma as it converges with older support levels around 133.50.

GBPCHF

This pair appears to have the most downside potential of the 3 with the lowest lows way off at around 1.52

However...

With big moves complete, pips banked, significant 'white space' between price and 1H moving averages and dwindling MACD momentum on the shorter term (5-15 min) charts, my personal appetite to the downside on all of these pairs is not what it was.

If I go short again it will be on one pair only, for beer money, and only then if all 3 are falling together.

... And of the 3 I favour GBPJPY, simply because it will be completing a divergence 'cycle' on the 1H chart.

With respect to Cable and GBPCHF, I am more interested in waiting for a short term (5m) divergence opportunity - later in the week - if continued downside is not reflected in MACD momentum on the 1H charts.

Strewth !

When I posted this morning I genuinely didn't expect Sterling to bomb so quickly.

When it did I my Cable and GBPCHF shorts triggered.

When it reversed, re-tested support - now resistance - and didn't reverse back to the downside, I got out.

... 130 pips and 0.75% account to the worse.

This isn't supposed to happen and I need to understand why before I make my next move.

Short Sterling Tactics

Okay, so just in case my short Sterling bias is right, let's start commiting some tactics to paper.

We'll take the 'Yippon' first as it looks to me like this pair might be the first to fall...

GBPJPY


The key signs for me here are the MACD divergence and the fact that the pair hasn't managed to re-challenge the highs of last week; it is currently hemmed in between 1H 62 and 144emas.

So what I am thinking is that if it can close a nice big bearish 1H candle below the 1H 200 and horizontal support at 136.36, I would be tempted to short it, targetting the 1H 800sma.

GBPCHF

As I said in last Thursday's post, I just don't see any more near-term upside potential in this pair, and because the recent retracement wasn't preceded by MACD divergence on the Daily charts, I can't help feeling that there is still plenty of appetite to the downside.

But, what a consolidation ! I've pasted a 4H chart because I couldn't show the size of the consolidation box on a 1H chart.

Here I would take a big, convicted 1H candle closing below the 200sma, rising support and - unless all the Sterling crosses were falling together - horizontal support at 1.6361.

My target would be next horizontal support at 1.57 for ... a lot of pips.

GBPUSD

Finally, let's look at the major...

What I note here is that whilst Cable has observed sloping resistance religeously, it's wandered through my shorter term rising support line as it's consolidation goes on .... and on.

So here it's the horizontal support at 1.4044 that must be taken out to provoke a short entry, which would target the lowest of lows at 1.35.

When ?

Since I may well be wrong on direction, timing is an even bigger ask to determine, but whilst GBPJPY could go at any time, it may be that some big news will be required to force the breakouts I'm hoping for in the other pairs. I also think it is most likely to occur when the maximum number of market participants are in the game - so early NY session is, for me, the most likely scenario. With the first observation in mind I note that the dreaded NFP Friday is hoving back into view...

... but I do hope that they trigger before then.

Week 9 Strategy

No charts tonight because little has changed since last week. Cable and GBPCHF continue to consolidate and having made it back up to the Daily 62 ema, GBPJPY could be due a reversal.

The other pairs I follow, USDCHF and USDCAD, are rangebound.

So... Whilst my Sterling bias remains to downside (and I would certainly back a breakout from GBPCHF's current consolidation zone) I need to see how the markets develop before another clear trade opportunity sets up.

Yen Comes In

Those of you who follow USDJPY - and, perhaps, who read my last post - will know that the 5 minute divergence trade I had been planning triggered when Asia opened late on Thursday evening.

Here's how it went for me...

Not shown here, Tom and Iactually entered a small pilot position as it crossed the minor support line but got out when it started to falter a bit. This wasn't particularly slick.

However, we stayed watching closely, having determined to re-enter on a break of horizontal support. When this happened shortly afterwards, I was confident enough to short the pair at twice my standard lot size.

I then exited at the first indication of a reversal, electing to take the quick pips...

... and since I was so leveraged relatively, I harvested a shade under 1% for the account.

In hindsight this may seem way too timid, especially since the pair eventually made it all the way back down to the 5m 800 sma (... and at my trade size this would have represented a massive gain) but you have to bear in mind that at the time, Tom and I didn't know this, and with the last Friday of the month looming, I wasn't prepared to sacrifice any more with a tidy profit ready to pick off the table.

My last reflection is that whilst a well structured 5m divergence trade makes it back to the 5m 800 sma well over 70% of the time - against all pairs - in my backtesting, those first 'quick' pips are as close to a certainty as one gets in FOREX. Further, the subsequent reversal (as was the case here) can be severe and hard to stomach - particaulary if one is well leveraged.

A smaller lot size would undoubtedly have kept me in the trade longer, but this would - to my estimation - have been a dangerous game to play on a Friday.

With Friday in mind...

Fridays - particularly, last Fridays of the month - have a nasty habit for trend reversal as profit is taken and balance sheets squared the world over.

Well, what about this for a pair that is ripe for a reversal ...

Now, this is what I call divergent.

So, switching to a shorter timeframe...

What I am looking for is a convincing break of the pink support line to trigger a short entry.

And I'll be targetting the 5m 800 sma (Yellow), watching price movement around areas of support for opportunities to add positions or take pips off the table.

Quite Excited

I'm getting quite excited about GBPCHF...

I'm getting more bearish by the day on the Sterling crossess. Whilst this pair and Cable continue their massive consolidation, Yippon is forming a double top on MACD divergence.

But GBPCHF is particularly interesting as it flirts with support in the lower quartile of its pennant.

Having said this, downside momentum is weakening on the 1H chart and it will have to get beyond the 800 sma before rising support can be challenged.

So, what are the options ?

Well, a downside move - sufficiently large - to supportprovoke a short is asking a lot of the last Friday of the month, so in the near term a 15min pivot play might generate a few pips but looking into next week ...

Whatever happens, the move is likely to be explosive, given the length of consolidation and the extent of the current squeeze.

But I do hope it's down !

Catching Up

Sorry for dropping out of contact. I need to bring you up to date on a busy, and profitable trading week.

You will remember that I went into Week 8 with a pilot short position on USDCHF. Here is how it panned out...

The reversal against this pilot position was nasty and my stop loss at 1.1717 was a few pips from being taken out, but when the pair started to reverse off previous support (now resistance) I drew a trend line connecting the lows and sold a further (standard) lot size.

Then on witnessing the pair start to break down the following forenoon I entered a final (standard) short on the 1H close.

On Rob's advice I targeted 1.1550 and exited all positions at this point. As you can see from the chart Rob's exit level was spot on; the pair hasn't been this low since.

Because of position sizing this was a very profitable (200 pips / 3% of account) trade.

My second trade of the week was the short term reversal on the GBPJPY that I had strategized over at the weekend. This is how it looked...

It was hard work watching this pair soar away all Monday but when MACD momentum began to dissipate on the 1H chart I switched to the 5 minute chart and waited for a decisive break of rising support.

You can see from the chart that I was late with my initial short (1/3rd standard lot size), but I was watching the pair break down with my trading partner, Tom, and having made good money already this week, neither of us wanted to trade until we saw a really strong bearish candle and a decisive break of horizontal support at 1.40.

I took profit on the first touch of the 1H 62 ema (117 pips) and then, because the pair hadn't completed its return to the 5m 800 sma, I continued to trace the reaction rally closely.

I re-entered short (1/3 rd standard lot) on the first 5m break of short term rising support and within an hour I was able to exit at the 800 sma with another 75 pips.

Profit on this trade was a shade under 1% account.

I'm proud of both these trades...

- the first because I held my nerve and leveraged when I was sure the trade was moving my way.

- the second because of my short term execution (particularly) on the second leg.

So, overall, it's been a great week and end to my first trading month. The account is 6% up and whilst consistency is not yet where I would wish it to be, I can feel trade planning, discipline and execution all improving.

Looking forward, my focus beyond these areas will be on developing my ability to safely leverage successful trades. But already I see that the key is personal conviction, and this builds as a direct result of seeing a thoroughly back-tested and meticulously planned trade play out before one's eyes.

Week 8 Strategy

Since I have already nailed my colours to the USDCHF mast (see last post) I've concentrated this weekend's analysis on Cable and my GBP risk pairs. I'm going to look at them from Daily Charts down the 1H.

GBPUSD

The sheer scale and pace of Cable's fall, together with clear divergence on the Daily chart at the bottom, makes me feel bullish. Surely it is due a meaningful snap back up ?...



This 4H chart is a little less convincing. The pair has been consolidating all week and whilst the sloping 4H support line has held, it has been tested twice. Whereas, the pair failed to make it up to sloping 4H resistance, instead being turned back by closer horizontal resistance.

The longer it consolidates, the larger the potential breakout (No s**t Sherlock !), but, my feeling is - increasingly - that the first big move will be back to the downside.

But, what I think is absolutely irrelevant, as the next breakout of the pair's current consolidation zone is likely to be significant enough to 'take-out' sloping support or resistance lines and tell-us which way it's headed.

Tactically, this leaves us with 2 options:

1. Either, trade a (significant) 1H breakout from the 1H 800 - particularly if it closes outside the closing S/R pennant.

2. Look for divergence and reversal candles at the limits of the pennant and trade back into the 1H 800.

GBPJPY

Whereas Cable remained rangebound last week, the 'Yippon' (our coloquialism) managed to break out to the upside, but was temporarily turned back by 4H sloping resistance; an earlier trade report details my trade of this move.

However, it hasn't fallen back far and looks like it wants to have another go...

However, even if it does break through it soon comes up against the Daily 62 ema and the previous high at 137.28.

So, for the meantime at least, there isn't a trade to the upside for me. I will be looking for reversals - on divergence - back to the 1H 800 sma.

GBPCHF

... Is different in that the recent up-swing on the Daily chart was not predeeded by MACD divergence - weakening the argument that zest for the downside is dwindling.


And look at all those 'indecsion' candles on the Daily...

On the 4H chart I note Upside MACD divergence and the fact that (unlike the Yippon), it hasn't managed even to challenge sloping resistance of late.


Finally, I note on the 1H chart that this pair (unlike the other Sterling crosses) still hasn't made it back to the 800 sma.

As you can see, I am bearish on this baby. I think she wants to tank and I wouldn't be at all surprised if she gaps down the 1H 800 at the re-open.

Whatever, I'm going to be watching that (very) near support line like a hawk.