Not Bad...

At the back end of last week, I wrote that I felt Sterling was due for a bounce - but that GBPJPY might complete its cycle back to the 800 sma beforehand. I also said that USDCHF's lack of 'follow-through' might be the prelude to a fall.

So, how did I do ?

Well, by Tuesday evening I was 150 pips and 1% account down having entered, then wimped out of, both the GBPJPY and USDCHF trade plans. Had I stayed with the latter I might have made an awful lot of pips. Bugger.

However, having watched a head and shoulders forming on GBPCHF throughout Tuesday, I resolved to enter short if it broke the neckline and 1H 62 ema, targetting the 200 sma, as my back-testing has taught me that this is a very high probability set-up; particularly on this pair.

Here is the set-up...

...And here is how the trade went.

I actually entered 2 positions, a 'pilot' position as it started to break on the 5min chart and then a second, 2 times standard lot size on the 5min close below the neckline.

This was such a sweet set-up that I felt very confident throughout and exited 4 hours later with a profit of 200+ pips and 4% account.

Incidentally, if you look back at the first chart you will see that the pair went on to touch its theoretical profit target of 330 pips, based on the measured distance of neckline to the peak.

My second prediction that Sterling would rise, was assisted to fruition by the Fed, yesterday afternoon. I don't know about the rest of you but I found it very hard to sit on my hands as the Dollar tanked against everything - especially CHF, given my earlier prediction.

Personally, I responded by shutting my laptop down and walking the dog. Despite my earlier success I was gutted not to have capitalised on my instincts and didn't trust myself to trade.

However, the sun came up this morning and seeing a consolidation box forming around the 1H 800 sma I resloved to buy a 1H break-out of this zone.

Here is how the set-up looked...


And here is how the trade went...

This was another belter,with 160 pips banked, but since I had already made my profit target for the week I was trading the 'beer money' rules and so came away with just under 1% account from the trade.

I can't justify my reason for exiting when I did beyond the fact that I saw momentum starting to wane on 5 and 15 min charts, and that I felt the pair had probably risen enough for one day (!).

Now I am looking to re-enter long, particularly if we get a decent bounce off the (pink) descending support line. However, whether I will have the bottle to carry this through - especially on a Friday - remains to be seen.