Week 6 Strategy

GBPUSD

Strategy.

Cable cleared a key resistance level last week and regained the 1H 800 sma, endind the week hard up against 4H downward sloping resistance. Overall, the pair still looks pretty strong BUT a pull-back to rising support may be necessary before it has the oomf to power through the resistance overhead.

As can be seen from the Tactical chart, Cable is both overbought and divergent.

A lot will depend on how it opens but ...

1. A strong 4H close above downward sloping resistance would provoke a long entry; Tgt 4H 800 (currently at 1.63...!).

2. Alternatively, a bearish 1H candle, below downward sloping resistance, as the 1H stochastic comes out of overbought would provoke a short entry; Tgt rising support / 1H 800sma.

GBPCHF

Strategy...

This pair overcame major horizontal and downward sloping resistance this week and is trending steeply (60 degrees !) upwards. It is starting to look over extended and may be due for a pullback to horizontal and longer term upward sloping support.

Tactics...
Overbought on the 1H chart and with MACD momentum quickly evaporating, I will emter a short trade on a 5 minute close below short term support, leverage the position on a 5 minute close below longer term rising support. Initial target will be the 5 minute 800, but depending on momentum here I will let a position run to the shallower rising support.

Or I am wrong, in which case a 1H close above 1.7286 would trigger a long entry.

GBPJPY

Strategy...

Again, this pair has made great strides over the last week, climbing back up to some pretty strong resistance, but it's hanging on by its teeth and for the next 500 pips above it's got some major congestion to deal with.

Tactics...

Absolutely not interested in any buy trades while the 1H 800 sma splits the 62ema and 200sma and there's enough divergence to provoke a sell on a strong bearish candle coming out of overbought... so long as it closes below rising support. Target would be gentler rising support.

EURGBP

Strategy...

This pair looks like it may be trying to bounce...

There's a few nice reversal candles on the 4H and MACD divergence on 4H and 1H charts.

Tactics...

... But it's going to have to close above horizontal and downward sloping resistance before it's a buy, targetting the 1H 800sma.

... Or it will bounce off resistance and bomb. In which case it's a sell below 0.8665 on a 1H close.

And finally....

USDCHF

Strategy.

This go has also bounced nicely, regaining and blasting through the 4H 800 sma. BUT, it's had 3 failed attempts at the resistance at 1.17047 and it's very MACD divergent on the 4H chart. It currently looks headed for another test of upward sloping support (at least) before it has a 4th attempt.

Tactics...

As can be seen onthe 1H chart, this pair has already broken 1H rising support, regained it and then failed again. A fall below the next layer of rising support may trigger a return to the 1H 800 sma.

Sell below that and horizontal support at 1.15740, Tgt 1H 800 sma.